Today, foresight receives more attention than futures research. These two fields could easily be taken as one and the same, which is partly true. However, they do have their differences.
The roots of futures research are in the 1960’s, when the interest for outlining the future rose because of current environmental issues, among other things. Back then, there was a general interest to question the military rearmament and rising materialism, which could lead to the destruction of the planet. A paradigmatic change was pursued, aiming to change the foundations of the society’s activities.
This kind of futures research may have appeared too heavy a science for business and governance. Futures research is interested in looking into the future for decades at a time, whereas many actors and organisations define their strategies for two years at a time.
Foresight as a term or as a method of working came up in the 1990’s. Foresight emphasizes practicality and data applicability, and thus overlaps with planning. The risk with foresight is going so close to its subject that the future is dropped out of the picture, and only a snapshot of the situation and some defining statements are developed. Foresight activities by different sectors could also be difficult to use in other than their own specific field.
The need for systemic change poses an interesting challenge for foresight. When you take a look at the entire society and talk about change, you cannot stick to planning based on industry domains or sectors. You must have a broader and deeper view. In fact, you need to take a step back and entertain the thought of tearing down the existing models of operation. In other words, you must reach the core of the things that tie us into our current solutions. Only then things can be changed without instantly colliding with practical obstacles caused by deeply rooted conventions in management or company processes.
This need has clearly been acknowledged. Some long term scenarios have been recently produced in Finland in the name of foresight. Foresight is clearly on display. It is being discussed a lot, and foresight is a desired part of all kinds of planning. It is important to remember foresight’s close relation to futures research, so that we do not look too close.
