The theme for December was leisure and consumption. While Roope Mokka discussed the change in consumption habits through Jody Turner’s predictions, Mari Hjelt reported on the insightful discussions she had had with the true creative minds that will shape the future: small children. According to climate scientists, the change in consumption has 10 to 15 years to succeed. According to Mari Hjelt’s empirical evidence, the children today have enquiring minds that demand to know what is being done for their future.

Two projects relating to foresight reached their milestones during December. Based on feedback and input, Karoliina Luoto published the current vision of the Finnish Information Society 2020 strategy work. The vision focuses on humanity and how it will guide the development and use of services and technology. A report on Digital Natives and the web generation (download as PDF, in Finnish) was published. The report examines digital natives and their impact on society, especially as employees.

After the economic depression of the 1990s, the middle class in Finland increased its financial wealth at an amazing speed. At the same time, Finland came to have a completely new social class consisting of the rich – including even millionaires. Observing the society and comparing the indicators of consumption to those 15 years before showed foremost the importance of material appearance. As almost everyone could afford several new purses, the others had to be made aware how much I paid for my purse.

The financial improvement becomes even more amazing when we consider the fact that the growth and consumerism took place without having to take major debts. Especially the older generations have made it without debt costs. Consequently, their bank accounts should be full of money. While the average Finnish household in 2004 had approximately 128,000 euro in net property, the 55–64 age group had 204,000 euro.

Based on the figures, it is apparent that these soon fully retired generations will become an important group for defining the Finnish culture and the way of living. The currently attractive youth culture will change to the culture of the elderly, where the elderly define the leisure and consumption in the society. In the future, the culture of consumption is dictated by the elderly. This group has time, money and political influence. They have the resources and the latitude to be vain.

The working class also wants leisure time, even though the quality of working life is increasing. Equality between the sexes, the possibility to influence your own position, leadership methods, awareness of the objectives of the work, environmental concerns and self-development in work have all improved since the mid-1990s. However, this improvement is not reflected in the happiness of employees. The barometer of the Ministry of Employment and the Economy clearly shows that even though the quality of work is improving, the employees consider the meaningfulness of work becoming lower. The workers have had enough of working and are now making major decisions. Sabbatical leaves are getting longer, paternal leaves are becoming more common and the working week is being shortened to four days. The content of the work is becoming more important. There are more and more skilled idle people in the society.

Being idle and the desire for meaningfulness step up the change in consumption. Jody Turner, a trend analyst from San Francisco, has described the visible change in product planning and design as ”the new design model.” The traditional logic of consumption of have-do-be is replaced with be-do-have. Before, we defined our relationship to a product by actually using it. Now, the thought pattern emphasises identity and action. Self-expression and leading an active life defines and drives our consumption habits more and more. The tools are defined by their use. If Turner’s prediction holds true, this will be the first setback for consumption in its history. Consumption – making different functions and parts of life commercially available – has walked a glorious path of victory from utility articles and handbags to the privacy of our homes: home theatres, home spas, home wine cellars and home pool halls. The material world and recognizable signs are not going anywhere; according to Turner, the change is that we give them their meaning, not the producers.

Consumption is changing. Instead of being the final repository, the consumer will become a part of building and improving the product. Citizens want to participate, can participate and have the time for participating more and more in the design of products and services. In the race for the demanding consumer, the player who treats the citizens as smart and able individuals will prevail. Consumption is increasingly more about the designer handing over his design to the consumer, and the consumer then finalizing the product. As such, the method is not new, it is just expanding an old method for the masses. Finns consider the do-it-yourself ethos familiar; we want to renovate our own houses and build our summer cottages ourselves. This year’s youth barometer strongly shows the same trend that Turner points out. The younger generation does not look at creative hobbies as a route to occupation, nor do they consider them as production or consumption. The focus is on self-expression, creating something new, and learning new skills.

The change Turner’s product design paradigm introduces is one of the changes that emphasise identity building through action. The paradigm successfully describes the future citizen that no longer builds his or her identity on purchased products and material, but rather on the relationship with the things he or she uses and owns. It is significant that this is an empirical finding of an existing design practice. The change is radical. The old design model says that ”You have to have money in order to make money, in order to do what you love, and in order to be the person you are supposed to be”. The new model provides a far more attractive statement: ”Be who you are right now; while doing so, redefine what having means to you”.

The effort of shifting from becoming consumers to active actors appears to be both desirable and inevitable. It is a part of the megatrend of authenticity that currently draws power from the pursuit towards a sustainable lifestyle and the redefinition of consumption and work caused by the economic downturn. It seems unlikely that this freedom arrives in time and with enough power to solve the huge forthcoming problems of consumption. Global resource problems, first and foremost the climate change, are here right now. Climate scientists give the consumption change  10 to 15 years to succeed. The change will not happen with mere goodwill. The change must be accelerated with visible cooperation of incentives, regulation, additional information and better products and services. Certainly, we must put a price tag on coal, but it is not the only thing that eliminates our dependency on resources for ensuring our prosperity.

Food and the future of food production have been discussed in, for example, the food change scenarios of Sitra’s ERA project and the Mirhami project, coordinated by the Finland Futures Research Centre. Both projects take a look to the year 2030. ERA is more focused on the challenges brought up by the climate change, while Mirhami takes a closer look at the consumption structure of food.

Mirhami will publish its results on December 10th, 2008, and the final report, Future Images of Food Consumption, will be available from the Centre’s website after the event. The scenarios from Sitra’s EVA project will be available on this website before the end of the year, and will be announced separately.

Food ethicality and ecology will become a selection criterion alongside healthiness

The discussion about the future of food will not end on these reports. Food is a central area of human welfare. The food production and consumption models have lately been carefully studied. The focus is on the ecological, ethical and health related implications of food.

Up until today, the consumer is accustomed of checking the health notes on retail packages. Now they also have to start considering their own ethical and ecological responsibilities. Combining all this requires quite a bit of mental dexterity, as different arguments sometimes contradict each other. On top of all this, consumers are driven by the taste of food - the food they buy has to be good. How can all these views fit the same plate?

However, it is not just the consumer’s responsibility. Regardless of the admittedly significant choices a single consumer can make, only the industry’s product development investments and other development actions lead to better products. The industry has to answer to the changes in food consumption. The packaging notes still count; how else can the consumer know what he is buying?

It’s our choice

What is the food like in 2030, then? The ERA programme promises vegetables and fish. Or, plain old meat, just as we are used to. Or, artificial meat and sausages born in a laboratory. It completely depends on which one of these four scenarios you read. The future is open for us to choose.