Foresight.fi » Foresight methods

Summary of May 2010

Tomi Leivo — Mon, 31 May 2010 14:59:53 +0000

In May, the series introducing various professionals working with foresight activities continued with the presentation of Virpi Vaittinen, a Foresight Specialist at Finpro. Finpro’s foresight activities aim at gathering signals from a wide variety of domains, and the insight activities make the information a part of the client’s strategy and innovations. Foresight work is essential for being able to proactively help Finnish companies reach international markets. Signals are gathered through an international network and processed in the Trendwiki tool. The data is then analysed and further developed into trends that are relevant for the client’s business domain.

In his blog entry for May, Jari Kaivo-oja summarised the 10 most important ideas and concepts that will have an impact on future development, as originally presented by Time magazine. Instead – or in addition to – weak signals, foresight research should also consider the super ideas that shape our future.

The 10 super ideas, as presented by Time:

USA’s economic and political dominance will continue.
Nations will re-define their borders.
Broadband internet will be the oil fields of the future.
Drop-out economy, where the youth lose their interest in education, will rise.
Co-operation between China and the USA will increase and impact the global economy.
Triumph through mistakes: we should not try to eliminate making mistakes, but allow people to experiment, learn and develop – for example, by being entrepreneurs.
White minority. The white population will become a minority in several countries and major cities.
TV saves the world. Television will still be the next mass medium in several developing areas.
The end of the elite. In the US, the elite, such as the Congress, major corporations and national institutions, take heavy critique and become re-evaluated.
Radical changes become less frequent. Technology-driven visions will not change the world overnight.

Summary of May 2009

Tomi Leivo — Sat, 30 May 2009 07:01:45 +0000

Related to the monthly theme of the role of the countryside, May was kicked off with a discussion on the current attitudes toward telecommuting and working remotely. Since the 1980s, telecommuting has been seen as an important development path in the evolution of working. Currently, the initiative for remote working comes from the employee, and is not particularly well promoted as a possibility by the employer. In the future, it is important for employers and businesses to investigate and develop the possibilities for telecommuting and promote them in their organisations, as future employees consider them as a significant factor for choosing their employer.

Kari A. Hintikka discussed the possibilities of new technology in short-term foresight work. Information streams from the internet (Twitter, for example), enable organisations and common citizens to monitor developing trends in real-time as the crowds produce the information. Individual weak signals become streams of signals. The information streams are already utilised by various companies to monitor real-time consumer reactions or to anticipate growing trends that will fully emerge in the near future. The flip side of the coin is the potential for misinformation and panic boosted by the internet – for example, in the case of the global H1N1 swine flu outbreak.

The H1N1 influenza also prompted two bloggers to address the topic of risk management. Even though most of live in the safest environment in the history, we prepare for an unprecedented amount of various risks. Some of the risks are managed on a personal level, while others are handled on a societal level. The governmental policies for obtaining H1N1 vaccinations, for example, are under close scrutiny by the public eye, as the public is ready and willing to questions made by the authorities. Analysing and evaluating risks, and acting according to the evaluation results instead of panicking, is important on both societal level as on the economical level for individual businesses.

Summary of April 2009

Tomi Leivo — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 06:58:47 +0000

During April, the Foresight.fi bloggers discussed and introduced various methods for foresight work. These included theoretical, practical and innovative methods: the theory discussed the merits of the Delphi method used in foresight work and the possibilities of neuroeconomics, while the practical viewpoint concentrated on the benefits and possibilities of telepresence participation, using a Sitra workshop as an example case. The innovative new approaches that can be applied in foresight were demonstrated by a game-like approach for the collective discussion of different possible development paths for the future. The approach is developed by the Institute for the Future (IFTF).

The blog series for introducing Finnish foresight experts was kicked off with an interview with Kirsi Juva, the project manager for the Oivallus project.