In his blog entry for May, Jari Kaivo-oja summarised the 10 most important ideas and concepts that will have an impact on future development, as originally presented by Time magazine. Instead – or in addition to – weak signals, foresight research should also consider the super ideas that shape our future.

The 10 super ideas, as presented by Time:

1. USA’s economic and political dominance will continue.
2. Nations will re-define their borders.
3. Broadband internet will be the oil fields of the future.
4. Drop-out economy, where the youth lose their interest in education, will rise.
5. Co-operation between China and the USA will increase and impact the global economy.
6. Triumph through mistakes: we should not try to eliminate making mistakes, but allow people to experiment, learn and develop – for example, by being entrepreneurs.
7. White minority. The white population will become a minority in several countries and major cities.
8. TV saves the world. Television will still be the next mass medium in several developing areas.
9. The end of the elite. In the US, the elite, such as the Congress, major corporations and national institutions, take heavy critique and become re-evaluated.
10. Radical changes become less frequent. Technology-driven visions will not change the world overnight.

The active discussion on the blog entry criticised the need for constant growth (instead of even considering degrowth as an alternative) and went on to debate the different growth models and the quality of growth. The discussion moved on to the very definition of innovation, and the entire process from an idea to invention to innovation. The blog entry clearly struck a nerve – the discussion on Western growth models and the importance of immaterial capital is clearly a sensitive topic.

Another theme for April was open data. In his blog entry, Kari A. Hintikka presented the Public data – introduction to opening up information sources (available in Finnish, PDF) publication. Following the example from the US and the UK, the publication provides guidance and best practices for opening up different public administration data sources. The data could be used for various purposes: creating new business opportunities, civic activities and improving the public administration, for example. Various official departments and institutions in Finland are opening up their data while commercial actors may soon follow suit. The first applications and business concepts making use of open data are slowly emerging.

The different service design domains require experienced professionals that master the tools for creating digital enterprise-level services. Service design will not be outsourced to cheaper countries, but will become an increasingly important strategic advantage to Finnish companies when competing both in the domestic and international markets. The domain includes a variety of business models, from turnkey service solution agreements to limited function-based service agreements. Being able to take full benefit from the new service models, both the clients and the service providers must develop and adapt to Service Oriented Architecture in their operations.

For example, the Finnish forestry and metal industries should adopt the best practices of good service design and strive towards creating new service innovations. Flexible and integrated service solutions allow the service provider to produce added value to the clients.

The current foresight research regarding work includes a report by Rohit Talwar titled The shape  of Jobs to come (PDF). The report highlights examples of the kinds of jobs, careers and professions that could result from advances in science and technology within the period between 2010 and 2030. The report also features a sample sheet of 20 featured future jobs (PDF) – including job titles such as virtual clutter organiser and time broker.

• FastFuture: The shape of Jobs to come
• The Wall Street Journal: Landing a Job of the Future Takes a Two-Track Mind
• CareerPlanner.com: Top Jobs For The Future

In Finland, the Institute of Occupational Health organised the Horizon  2025 seminar that discussed the future of work in Finland. Key challenges include extending work careers and being able to stay healthy at work. Future work should be both financially, humanely, socially and ecologically sustainable. This requires changes for workers and employers, as well as society and the working environment in general.

Leena Ilmola provided insights from discussions held at the International Institute for Systems Analysis,  in Laxenburg, near Vienna. Approximately 150 to 200 IIASA experts analyse change from a system perspective with an analytical approach.  One of the current topics was food, and the global changes in the food market regarding prices and availability.

Food has been a current topic on national levels as well. In Finland, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is currently working on a national food strategy for 2020. Background research is now completed and the process will continue with expert workshops and strategy work. Results are expected during the summer of 2010. The United Kingdom has just completed its Food 2030 (pdf) strategy.

While Ruurik Holm commented on the current discussion on pensions, Jari Kaivo-oja reported on the launch of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology. Dubbed “the MIT of Europe”, the institute will become an important European science institute that actively creates networks to other institutions. Finnish organisations, such as the Aalto University and the Academy of Finland, must work towards creating active connections with the EIT. One of the EIT Knowledge and Innovation Communities is set to be based in Finland, at the Otaniemi campus area of the Aalto University.

Kari A. Hintikka reported his experiences on the topic of innovations and new working methods, based on the Innovation Train event that took place in January. The event gathered approximately 50 enthusiasts together on a train trip full of brainstorming and networking. The unorthodox meeting was well received, and considered as a good case example on how the power of the web community can be used to create innovative real-life events.

While Ruurik Holm commented on the current discussion on pensions, Jari Kaivo-oja reported on the launch of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology. Dubbed “the MIT of Europe”, the institute will become an important European science institute that actively creates networks to other institutions. Finnish organisations, such as the Aalto University and the Academy of Finland, must work towards creating active connections with the EIT. One of the EIT Knowledge and Innovation Communities is set to be based in Finland, at the Otaniemi campus area of the Aalto University.

Kari A. Hintikka reported his experiences on the topic of innovations and new working methods, based on the Innovation Train event that took place in January. The event gathered approximately 50 enthusiasts together on a train trip full of brainstorming and networking. The unorthodox meeting was well received, and considered as a good case example on how the power of the web community can be used to create innovative real-life events.

The theme for December was leisure and consumption. While Roope Mokka discussed the change in consumption habits through Jody Turner’s predictions, Mari Hjelt reported on the insightful discussions she had had with the true creative minds that will shape the future: small children. According to climate scientists, the change in consumption has 10 to 15 years to succeed. According to Mari Hjelt’s empirical evidence, the children today have enquiring minds that demand to know what is being done for their future.

Two projects relating to foresight reached their milestones during December. Based on feedback and input, Karoliina Luoto published the current vision of the Finnish Information Society 2020 strategy work. The vision focuses on humanity and how it will guide the development and use of services and technology. A report on Digital Natives and the web generation (download as PDF, in Finnish) was published. The report examines digital natives and their impact on society, especially as employees.

The countryside theme also continued in November. Eeva Hellström from Sitra introduced the Maamerkit programme that looks for fresh perspectives and methods for creating a competitive advantage for the countryside, thereby creating new value and well-being for all Finland. The programme is launched in the beginning of 2010 and is preceded by online workshops during November.

The fourth entry in the ongoing series introducing Finnish foresight professionals introduced Päivi Ouallen. Päivi works for the Lapland Institute for Tourism Research and Education in Rovaniemi and focuses in planning and developing foresight services for tourism.

In the vision, the information society is based on meaningful services, a high-quality infrastructure and open standards. The technology will not, however, replace the human touch needed in different fields, such as nursing. The vision also addressed themes such as democracy, freedom and availability of information and working in the information society.

Following on this theme, other bloggers also touched upon the subject of information. In today’s society, controlling information is comparable to controlling the means and results of production. Most businesses race toward controlling and limiting the availability of information – seen especially in the increasing importance of intellectual property rights – and making information a commodity with a price tag. This trend is being supported by the government, for example, by allowing financial actors take a more dominant role in the University system. As a counter reaction, the public (such as the students) are raising their voice, and becoming more radical.

Jari Kaivo-oja’s blog entry on creativity and ensuring the quality of innovations raised heated discussion on the subject. The decline of the traditional industries, such as forestry and the metal industry, prompts the society to shift the focus to other domains. In 2006, the Ministry of Education published a list of 11 practical steps toward becoming a more creative and innovative nation. In addition to the creative industries, the creative skills must be applied in all industry domains in order to achieve true innovations.

The next Finnish foresight expert in the continuous series was Leena Ilmola who is working with her doctoral dissertation in the Helsinki University of Technology. She currently works with the Extreme Events in Human Systems project in the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna.

In the spirit of the upcoming environment summit in Copenhagen, Jari Kaivo-oja discussed the challenges of the post-carbon society. The society has to adapt to using new sources for energy and preparing for the ecological and societal impact of the change in the environment. Finland and the EU are focusing their goals in the reducing emissions, improving energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources. New innovations in technology are needed, but are not sufficient; energy safety, resource sufficiency and the development of the price for oil have all to be taken into account. Cosmetic changes are not enough: the society has to critically re-evaluate policies on traffic and transportation, housing and city development, for example.

Kari A. Hintikka discussed the possibilities of how political parties can organise themselves in the internet age. The scenario examines the possibilities of four internet traits: crowdsourcing, wikis, collective intelligence and a network without a scale. The scenario presents four different kinds of political parties; ranging from parties striving for a consensus to parties embracing diversity. Interestingly enough, the parties presented in the scenario can be considered to have their real-life counterparts within the current political parties in Finland.