In his blog entry for May, Jari Kaivo-oja summarised the 10 most important ideas and concepts that will have an impact on future development, as originally presented by Time magazine. Instead – or in addition to – weak signals, foresight research should also consider the super ideas that shape our future.

The 10 super ideas, as presented by Time:

1. USA’s economic and political dominance will continue.
2. Nations will re-define their borders.
3. Broadband internet will be the oil fields of the future.
4. Drop-out economy, where the youth lose their interest in education, will rise.
5. Co-operation between China and the USA will increase and impact the global economy.
6. Triumph through mistakes: we should not try to eliminate making mistakes, but allow people to experiment, learn and develop – for example, by being entrepreneurs.
7. White minority. The white population will become a minority in several countries and major cities.
8. TV saves the world. Television will still be the next mass medium in several developing areas.
9. The end of the elite. In the US, the elite, such as the Congress, major corporations and national institutions, take heavy critique and become re-evaluated.
10. Radical changes become less frequent. Technology-driven visions will not change the world overnight.

The active discussion on the blog entry criticised the need for constant growth (instead of even considering degrowth as an alternative) and went on to debate the different growth models and the quality of growth. The discussion moved on to the very definition of innovation, and the entire process from an idea to invention to innovation. The blog entry clearly struck a nerve – the discussion on Western growth models and the importance of immaterial capital is clearly a sensitive topic.

Another theme for April was open data. In his blog entry, Kari A. Hintikka presented the Public data – introduction to opening up information sources (available in Finnish, PDF) publication. Following the example from the US and the UK, the publication provides guidance and best practices for opening up different public administration data sources. The data could be used for various purposes: creating new business opportunities, civic activities and improving the public administration, for example. Various official departments and institutions in Finland are opening up their data while commercial actors may soon follow suit. The first applications and business concepts making use of open data are slowly emerging.

The different service design domains require experienced professionals that master the tools for creating digital enterprise-level services. Service design will not be outsourced to cheaper countries, but will become an increasingly important strategic advantage to Finnish companies when competing both in the domestic and international markets. The domain includes a variety of business models, from turnkey service solution agreements to limited function-based service agreements. Being able to take full benefit from the new service models, both the clients and the service providers must develop and adapt to Service Oriented Architecture in their operations.

For example, the Finnish forestry and metal industries should adopt the best practices of good service design and strive towards creating new service innovations. Flexible and integrated service solutions allow the service provider to produce added value to the clients.

Openness is not a clear-cut concept, but the main message rings loud and clear: this is the way of the future.  Even the line between openness and transparency is blurry. Financial assistance for a politician’s campaign should be fully transparent, but Google Street View should not have open access to everywhere – private areas are not meant for public access. Throughout Europe, Google has come to understand that American standards of privacy differ from European ones. Furthermore, open source code itself is available for all, but not everyone should take a stab at developing it.

Private people should certainly have their privacy, but are organisations entitled to the same? Despite the cover-ups and secrecy, their actions will sooner or later be discussed within a public Facebook group or on a web petition site.

Somus – open science

Funded by the Academy of Finland, Somus is a project that develops interaction between people, public administration and the media, focusing especially on the web. One of the Somus principles is open science. All of the Somus activities, from preparation to research and decision-making, are as public as feasible, considering the available project resources. Indeed, with the current tools, openness requires extra effort.

For example, anyone can comment on the weekly meetings prior or during the meeting or read draft articles from the wiki or micro journal and help develop the articles. The starting point is to share all presentation materials and research materials (such as the cleaned data for network analysis). Somus even followed the transparency method when making its Academy application on the web.

The Somus activities have been considered both as something to be encouraged and also borderline suspicious. Research colleagues suspect that someone will steal their ideas, as they are available online. Being open requires practice, but it gets easier after a while.

Guidance on open data for public administration

On 25 May, a guidebook titled Public data – introduction to opening up information sources will be published. The guidebook, written by Antti Poikola, Petri Kola and Kari A. Hintikka, is published by the Finnish Ministry of Transport and Communications. The goal of the guidebook is to generate discussion on whether national data sources could be opened for public use by using a state budget, and whether these data sources could provide a competitive advantage, promote civic society and also make public administration run more efficiently.

March is full of interesting topics! Note that you can still read the blog anonymously; but you can promote transparency by signing your comments!

Original Finnish blog entry by Kari A. Hintikka.

The current foresight research regarding work includes a report by Rohit Talwar titled The shape  of Jobs to come (PDF). The report highlights examples of the kinds of jobs, careers and professions that could result from advances in science and technology within the period between 2010 and 2030. The report also features a sample sheet of 20 featured future jobs (PDF) – including job titles such as virtual clutter organiser and time broker.

• FastFuture: The shape of Jobs to come
• The Wall Street Journal: Landing a Job of the Future Takes a Two-Track Mind
• CareerPlanner.com: Top Jobs For The Future

In Finland, the Institute of Occupational Health organised the Horizon  2025 seminar that discussed the future of work in Finland. Key challenges include extending work careers and being able to stay healthy at work. Future work should be both financially, humanely, socially and ecologically sustainable. This requires changes for workers and employers, as well as society and the working environment in general.

Leena Ilmola provided insights from discussions held at the International Institute for Systems Analysis,  in Laxenburg, near Vienna. Approximately 150 to 200 IIASA experts analyse change from a system perspective with an analytical approach.  One of the current topics was food, and the global changes in the food market regarding prices and availability.

Food has been a current topic on national levels as well. In Finland, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is currently working on a national food strategy for 2020. Background research is now completed and the process will continue with expert workshops and strategy work. Results are expected during the summer of 2010. The United Kingdom has just completed its Food 2030 (pdf) strategy.

While Ruurik Holm commented on the current discussion on pensions, Jari Kaivo-oja reported on the launch of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology. Dubbed “the MIT of Europe”, the institute will become an important European science institute that actively creates networks to other institutions. Finnish organisations, such as the Aalto University and the Academy of Finland, must work towards creating active connections with the EIT. One of the EIT Knowledge and Innovation Communities is set to be based in Finland, at the Otaniemi campus area of the Aalto University.

Kari A. Hintikka reported his experiences on the topic of innovations and new working methods, based on the Innovation Train event that took place in January. The event gathered approximately 50 enthusiasts together on a train trip full of brainstorming and networking. The unorthodox meeting was well received, and considered as a good case example on how the power of the web community can be used to create innovative real-life events.

While Ruurik Holm commented on the current discussion on pensions, Jari Kaivo-oja reported on the launch of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology. Dubbed “the MIT of Europe”, the institute will become an important European science institute that actively creates networks to other institutions. Finnish organisations, such as the Aalto University and the Academy of Finland, must work towards creating active connections with the EIT. One of the EIT Knowledge and Innovation Communities is set to be based in Finland, at the Otaniemi campus area of the Aalto University.

Kari A. Hintikka reported his experiences on the topic of innovations and new working methods, based on the Innovation Train event that took place in January. The event gathered approximately 50 enthusiasts together on a train trip full of brainstorming and networking. The unorthodox meeting was well received, and considered as a good case example on how the power of the web community can be used to create innovative real-life events.

The theme for December was leisure and consumption. While Roope Mokka discussed the change in consumption habits through Jody Turner’s predictions, Mari Hjelt reported on the insightful discussions she had had with the true creative minds that will shape the future: small children. According to climate scientists, the change in consumption has 10 to 15 years to succeed. According to Mari Hjelt’s empirical evidence, the children today have enquiring minds that demand to know what is being done for their future.

Two projects relating to foresight reached their milestones during December. Based on feedback and input, Karoliina Luoto published the current vision of the Finnish Information Society 2020 strategy work. The vision focuses on humanity and how it will guide the development and use of services and technology. A report on Digital Natives and the web generation (download as PDF, in Finnish) was published. The report examines digital natives and their impact on society, especially as employees.

The countryside theme also continued in November. Eeva Hellström from Sitra introduced the Maamerkit programme that looks for fresh perspectives and methods for creating a competitive advantage for the countryside, thereby creating new value and well-being for all Finland. The programme is launched in the beginning of 2010 and is preceded by online workshops during November.

The fourth entry in the ongoing series introducing Finnish foresight professionals introduced Päivi Ouallen. Päivi works for the Lapland Institute for Tourism Research and Education in Rovaniemi and focuses in planning and developing foresight services for tourism.

After the economic depression of the 1990s, the middle class in Finland increased its financial wealth at an amazing speed. At the same time, Finland came to have a completely new social class consisting of the rich – including even millionaires. Observing the society and comparing the indicators of consumption to those 15 years before showed foremost the importance of material appearance. As almost everyone could afford several new purses, the others had to be made aware how much I paid for my purse.

The financial improvement becomes even more amazing when we consider the fact that the growth and consumerism took place without having to take major debts. Especially the older generations have made it without debt costs. Consequently, their bank accounts should be full of money. While the average Finnish household in 2004 had approximately 128,000 euro in net property, the 55–64 age group had 204,000 euro.

Based on the figures, it is apparent that these soon fully retired generations will become an important group for defining the Finnish culture and the way of living. The currently attractive youth culture will change to the culture of the elderly, where the elderly define the leisure and consumption in the society. In the future, the culture of consumption is dictated by the elderly. This group has time, money and political influence. They have the resources and the latitude to be vain.

The working class also wants leisure time, even though the quality of working life is increasing. Equality between the sexes, the possibility to influence your own position, leadership methods, awareness of the objectives of the work, environmental concerns and self-development in work have all improved since the mid-1990s. However, this improvement is not reflected in the happiness of employees. The barometer of the Ministry of Employment and the Economy clearly shows that even though the quality of work is improving, the employees consider the meaningfulness of work becoming lower. The workers have had enough of working and are now making major decisions. Sabbatical leaves are getting longer, paternal leaves are becoming more common and the working week is being shortened to four days. The content of the work is becoming more important. There are more and more skilled idle people in the society.

Being idle and the desire for meaningfulness step up the change in consumption. Jody Turner, a trend analyst from San Francisco, has described the visible change in product planning and design as ”the new design model.” The traditional logic of consumption of have-do-be is replaced with be-do-have. Before, we defined our relationship to a product by actually using it. Now, the thought pattern emphasises identity and action. Self-expression and leading an active life defines and drives our consumption habits more and more. The tools are defined by their use. If Turner’s prediction holds true, this will be the first setback for consumption in its history. Consumption – making different functions and parts of life commercially available – has walked a glorious path of victory from utility articles and handbags to the privacy of our homes: home theatres, home spas, home wine cellars and home pool halls. The material world and recognizable signs are not going anywhere; according to Turner, the change is that we give them their meaning, not the producers.

Consumption is changing. Instead of being the final repository, the consumer will become a part of building and improving the product. Citizens want to participate, can participate and have the time for participating more and more in the design of products and services. In the race for the demanding consumer, the player who treats the citizens as smart and able individuals will prevail. Consumption is increasingly more about the designer handing over his design to the consumer, and the consumer then finalizing the product. As such, the method is not new, it is just expanding an old method for the masses. Finns consider the do-it-yourself ethos familiar; we want to renovate our own houses and build our summer cottages ourselves. This year’s youth barometer strongly shows the same trend that Turner points out. The younger generation does not look at creative hobbies as a route to occupation, nor do they consider them as production or consumption. The focus is on self-expression, creating something new, and learning new skills.

The change Turner’s product design paradigm introduces is one of the changes that emphasise identity building through action. The paradigm successfully describes the future citizen that no longer builds his or her identity on purchased products and material, but rather on the relationship with the things he or she uses and owns. It is significant that this is an empirical finding of an existing design practice. The change is radical. The old design model says that ”You have to have money in order to make money, in order to do what you love, and in order to be the person you are supposed to be”. The new model provides a far more attractive statement: ”Be who you are right now; while doing so, redefine what having means to you”.

The effort of shifting from becoming consumers to active actors appears to be both desirable and inevitable. It is a part of the megatrend of authenticity that currently draws power from the pursuit towards a sustainable lifestyle and the redefinition of consumption and work caused by the economic downturn. It seems unlikely that this freedom arrives in time and with enough power to solve the huge forthcoming problems of consumption. Global resource problems, first and foremost the climate change, are here right now. Climate scientists give the consumption change  10 to 15 years to succeed. The change will not happen with mere goodwill. The change must be accelerated with visible cooperation of incentives, regulation, additional information and better products and services. Certainly, we must put a price tag on coal, but it is not the only thing that eliminates our dependency on resources for ensuring our prosperity.

In the vision, the information society is based on meaningful services, a high-quality infrastructure and open standards. The technology will not, however, replace the human touch needed in different fields, such as nursing. The vision also addressed themes such as democracy, freedom and availability of information and working in the information society.

Following on this theme, other bloggers also touched upon the subject of information. In today’s society, controlling information is comparable to controlling the means and results of production. Most businesses race toward controlling and limiting the availability of information – seen especially in the increasing importance of intellectual property rights – and making information a commodity with a price tag. This trend is being supported by the government, for example, by allowing financial actors take a more dominant role in the University system. As a counter reaction, the public (such as the students) are raising their voice, and becoming more radical.